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Meteo Day 5 (27.6.): Same same, but different?

Published on
26 June 2024

Cut-off low moving to the Strait of Gibralter, while a (very shallow) ridge remains over the Pyrenees. The advection of warm and moist air in lower levels continues.

Windsituation at 2000 MASL on Thursday 1300 LT; generally weak winds from southerly directions prevail. Thermic windsystems dominate between TP4 and TP5. ECMWF-forecast by

Area Castejon de Sos:
Not only on a large scale, also in the details Thursday looks rather similar than today. In terms of wind, there will be again mostly southerly winds of moderate strength within the thermal layer. Regarding insolation and thermals, there will be again some high clouds crossing the mountain range during the night, but they should move away and not hamper insolation. It seems that the airmass is slightly less stable in the morning than today, so it is forecasted that the thermals start slightly earlier than today.
Some Cu clouds will devlop into the earlier afternoon, locally growing into TCU, but while some thermal forecasts show rather high risk for showers, the probabilistic models show a rather low (5-20%) chance for rain around Castejon.
However it is likely that there will be some shaded areas from the middle of the afternoon onwards, probably slowing down flying conditions a bit and making things a bit more complicated.
Cloudbase is forecasted around 3500 in the high mountains and 2800 MASL in the foothills.

Risk for rain (>0.1mm/h) for Thursday afternoon, 1500 LT. The Castejon area sees only small blue dots, while the risk around TP5 and the area of Andorra and Font Romeu is higher.

Area Valle de Nuria:
Rather similar conditions as around Castejon with the difference, that the risk for showers is modelled slightly higher. While there are booming conditions in the early afternoon, the later afternoon will get more complicated because of the growing shadows and probably again some thunderstorms.

Once you leave TP5 and fly towards goal, the conditions will get increasingly stable. The area from Canigou down to Olot should still provide decent climbs up to around 3000 MASL, but once you get into the foothills, the seabreeze and a much lower base will it make progress much more difficult.
The feared Tramuntana (Northerly winds from France into Spain) in this area doesn’t seem to be very active, but in turn the large scale southerly flow could enhance the seabreeze (there are signs for a wind pattern called “Le marin” in southern France). Anyway airspaces, seabreeze and the stable conditions around Figueres will make for a challenging final for sure.

Significantly increasing south winds on Friday will make flying conditions more difficult, but weather around the courseline should remain mostly dry until the evening.
On Saturday, the cut-off low which dominated this week will swing over the Pyrenees, leading to widespread showers and storms moving in during the day.

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